DICAS

AFOLU results in both pollutants and removals of CO

AFOLU results in both pollutants and removals of CO
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Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) is a significant net source of GHG emissions (high confidence), contributing to about 23% of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CHcuatro) and nitrous oxide (N2O) combined as CO2 equivalents in 2007–2016 (medium confidence). 2, CH4 and N2O to and from the atmosphere (high confidence). These fluxes are affected simultaneously by natural and human drivers, making it difficult to separate natural from anthropogenic fluxes (very high confidence).

The total net land-atmosphere flux of CO2 on both managed and unmanaged lands very likely provided a global net removal from 2007 to 2016 according to models (-6.0 ± 3.7 CO2 yr –1 , likely range). 2 ± 2.6 GtCO2 yr –1 (likely range) driven by land cover change, including deforestation and afforestation/reforestation, and wood harvesting (accounting for about 13% of total net anthropogenic emissions of CO2) (medium confidence), and (ii) modelled net removals due to non-anthropogenic processes are 11.2 ± 2.6 GtCO2 yr –1 (likely range) on managed and unmanaged lands, driven by environmental changes such as increasing CO2, nitrogen deposition and changes in climate (accounting for a removal of 29% of the CO2 emitted from all anthropogenic activities (fossil fuel, industry and AFOLU) (medium confidence).

Global models and national GHG inventories use different methods to estimate anthropogenic CO2 emissions and removals for the land sector. Consideration of differences in methods can enhance understanding of land sector net emission such as under the Paris Agreement’s global stocktake (medium confidence). g., deforestation, afforestation), and differ for managed forest. Global models consider as managed forest those lands that were subject to harvest whereas, consistent with IPCC guidelines, national GHG inventories define managed forest more broadly. On this larger area, inventories can also consider the natural response valentime apk of land to human-induced environmental changes as anthropogenic, while the global model approach

treats this response as part of the non-anthropogenic sink. For illustration, from 2005 to 2014, the sum of the national GHG inventories net emission estimates is 0.1 ± 1.0 GtCO2yr –1 , while the mean of two global bookkeeping models is 5.1 ± 2.6 GtCO2yr –1 (likely range).

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The gross emissions from AFOLU (one-third of total global emissions) are more indicative of mitigation potential of reduced deforestation than the global net emissions (13% of total global emissions), which include compensating deforestation and afforestation fluxes (high confidence). The net flux of CO2 from AFOLU is composed of two opposing gross fluxes: (i) gross emissions (20 GtCO2 yr –1 ) from deforestation, cultivation of soils and oxidation of wood products, and (ii) gross removals (–14 GtCO2 yr –1 ), largely from forest growth following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment (medium confidence).

Land is a net source of CH4, accounting for 44% of anthropogenic CH4 emissions for the 2006–2017 period (medium confidence). The pause in the rise of atmospheric CH4 concentrations between 2000 and 2006 and the subsequent renewed increase appear to be partially associated with land use and land use change. The recent depletion trend of the 13C isotope in the atmosphere indicates that higher biogenic sources explain part of the current CH4 increase and that biogenic sources make up a larger proportion of the source mix than they did before 2000 (high confidence). In agreement with the findings of AR5, tropical wetlands and peatlands continue to be important drivers of inter- annual variability and current CH4 concentration increases (medium evidence, high agreement). Ruminants and the expansion of rice cultivation are also important contributors to the current trend (medium evidence, high agreement). There is significant and ongoing accumulation of CH4 in the atmosphere (very high confidence).